"The complexities of producing nuclear bomb materials from scratch are beyond the plausible capabilities of terrorist groups. Hence, if all the stockpiles produced by states can be reliably kept out of terrorist hands, nuclear terrorism can be reliably prevented. But once nuclear material has been stolen, it could be anywhere, and all the subsequent layers of defense, unfortunately, are variations on looking for needles in haystacks."1 - Matthew Bunn, "Securing the Bomb 2008"
Preventing a nuclear terrorist attack is possible if the US moves quickly to take all necessary steps. There has been no evidence that a terrorist group has already acquired the material necessary for a nuclear attack. The US already has in place several successful programs that have made real progress towards securing nuclear weapons and material. However, much more can and should be done to prevent a nuclear terrorist attack. The US can lead the international community in addressing this threat, increase coordination between agencies in the US, and prioritize high levels of funding to threat reduction programs.
Nuclear material such as highly enriched uranium (HEU) remains vulnerable in more than forty countries, sometimes secured with "little more than a night watchman and a chain-link fence."2 In 2006, a Russian man traveled to Georgia to sell weapons-grade highly enriched uranium to a Georgian agent posing as a buyer.3 Theft and smuggling of nuclear material, especially in the former Soviet Union, is one of the most probable ways for terrorist groups to acquire the material needed for a nuclear weapon.
However, strict security measures in the US are also not foolproof. In April 2008, a government-run exercise where mock terrorists succeeded in gaining access to special nuclear material at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory illustrated one scenario where terrorists could detonate a "dirty bomb" or improvise a crude nuclear device.4 The Project on Government Oversight reports that this lab "poses the most significant security threat of any such facility in the US. Roughly seven million people live within a fifty mile radius of the Livermore Lab, which has approximately one ton of weapons-grade and weapons-quantity of plutonium and highly enriched uranium."5
The proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear technology to more countries has expanded the number of targets for possible theft by terrorists. The August 2008 resignation of President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan – home to A.Q. Khan's former nuclear network and a hiding place of Al Qaeda – quickly brought the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal into question amidst the political transition to a new leader.6 The 9/11 Commission Report states that "al Qaeda has tried to acquire or make nuclear weapons for at least ten years" and their efforts continue.7
The new president and Congress should:
1. Appoint a high level White House official to oversee efforts to prevent nuclear terrorism. Lack of coordination between agencies is one of the biggest roadblocks to progress. The 9/11 Commission Act created a White House Coordinator for the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, but that position has remained unfilled.8 Appointing a high level official to this type of position would ensure oversight, coordination between the White House and different departments, and a sustained effort towards carrying out a comprehensive plan to eliminate the threat of nuclear weapons.
2. Prioritize adequate funding and resources for programs dealing with nuclear security. Additional funding and adequate personnel would allow current efforts to proceed more quickly and expand to take advantage of new opportunities. Currently, the "entire budget for all programs to prevent nuclear terrorism comes to less than one-quarter of one percent of the defense budget."9 An investment at the level of about one percent of annual US defense spending would greatly reduce the risk of nuclear theft and bring about a high level of security.10
3. Fully fund the Global Threat Reduction Initiative. Recognizing the danger posed by insufficient security measures at about 140 research reactors worldwide that use HEU, the US launched the Global Threat Reduction Initiative in 2004. This program helps to increase site security and remove HEU to more secure locations.11 GTRI addresses the global threat in countries around the world, and an estimated increase of an additional $200 million beyond the FY 2009 budget request would allow GTRI to expand quickly to address new risks.12
4. Fully fund the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. Cooperation between the US and Russia is critical to eliminating the threat of nuclear terrorism. The Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program addresses the threat of loose nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons in the former Soviet Union, and has achieved the deactivation of 7,298 strategic nuclear warheads, the destruction of 724 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), upgraded security at seventeen nuclear weapons storage sites, and more. The program has also helped to re-employ 58,000 former weapons scientists in peaceful work so that they are less likely to pursue weapons research for other countries.13
5. Strengthen UN Security Council Resolution 1540. This 2004 resolution attempts to set global standards for nuclear security. By clarifying standards and enforcement and specifying how states should meet their obligations to fulfill it, a stronger system to prevent nuclear terrorism can be established.
Footnotes
1. "Securing the Bomb 2008," Matthew Bunn, Project on Managing the Atom, Harvard University, and Nuclear Threat Initiative, November 2008
2. Ibid.
3. "Smuggler's Plot Highlights Fear Over Uranium," New York Times, January 25, 2007
4. "Security Flaws Exposed at Nuke Lab," Time Magazine, May 12, 2008
5. "U.S. Nuclear Weapons Complex: Livermore Homes and Plutonium Make Bad Neighbors", Project on Government Oversight, March 17, 2008
6. "In Musharraf's Wake, U.S. Faces Political Disarray", New York Times, August 18, 2008
7. "9/11 Commission Report," The National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, July 22, 2004, pg. 380
8. "Time to Name a Coordinator for WMD Proliferation," Kingston Reif, The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, June 26, 2008.
9. Bunn, "Securing the Bomb 2008," pg. 115.
10. Ibid, pg. 180.
11. "Thwarting Terrorists: More to be Done," Washington Post, September 26, 2007
12. Bunn, "Securing the Bomb 2008," pg. 119.
13. "Nunn-Lugar Update September 2008," lugar.senate.gov/press, September 2008
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