"Reassertion of the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons and practical measures toward achieving that goal would be, and would be perceived as, a bold initiative consistent with America's moral heritage. The effort could have a profoundly positive impact on the security of future generations. Without the bold vision, the actions will not be perceived as fair or urgent. Without the actions, the vision will not be perceived as realistic or possible."1 - Former Senator Sam Nunn, former Secretary of Defense William Perry, former Secretary of State George P. Shultz, and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger
A number of factors are combining to give new urgency to the call for concrete actions toward a world without nuclear weapons. For the last eight years, the Bush administration has reiterated an aggressive nuclear posture that fails to address our modern security challenges, undermines nuclear nonproliferation efforts, and is out of step with international nonproliferation sentiment. The 2002 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) took US nuclear policy in the wrong direction. Abandoning the idea that the only role of the US nuclear arsenal was to deter, the NPR put forward the possibility of preemptive nuclear strikes against other countries, some of which do not possess nuclear weapons of their own.2 In support of this posture, the Bush administration proposed plans for a greatly refurbished nuclear stockpile and infrastructure. It advocated for new and "more usable" nuclear weapons, which Congress repeatedly blocked. Yet the security threats currently facing the US, such as nuclear terrorism, are not addressed by maintaining a large nuclear arsenal.
The worldwide "nuclear club" is growing. North Korea announced in 2003 its intention to withdraw from the cornerstone Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and in October 2006 conducted an underground nuclear test. India, Pakistan, and Israel remain outside of the NPT. Decisive action needs to be taken to strengthen the nonproliferation regime.3
Voices from across the political spectrum state that the goal of a world without nuclear weapons is both critical to global security and achievable. Yet it is unlikely to happen without US leadership. Many non-nuclear states feel that the nuclear weapons states have failed to fulfill their obligations to work toward disarmament under the NPT. Overall, a failure to take proactive steps toward disarmament undermines the key international relationships that are critical to the United States' long-term security. Former Manhattan Project scientist and presidential Science Policy Adviser Wolfgang Panofsky wrote, "An effective nuclear policy would take into account the limited present-day need for a nuclear arsenal as well as the military and political dangers associated with maintaining a massive stockpile…. Given that the risks posed by nuclear weapons far outweigh their benefits in today's world, the United States should lead a worldwide campaign to de-emphasize their role in international relations."4
The new president and Congress should:
1. Immediately resume talks with Russia for deep, verifiable reductions in US and Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles. The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia, which established a system to verifiably reduce both US and Russian arsenals, is set to expire in December 2009 with nothing to replace it. The usefulness of the US nuclear arsenal is increasingly in question in the post-Cold War world. Enemies of the past, such as the USSR, either no longer exist or do not pose an imminent threat. Maintaining a large stockpile is dangerous and expensive. The US and Russia should make deep, verifiable, and irreversible reductions to their nuclear weapons stockpiles as a first step towards eventual global elimination.
2. Commit to ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). By banning the testing necessary for new nuclear weapons development, the CTBT is a critical component of nuclear nonproliferation. More than 180 nations have signed the CTBT and 148 have ratified it, banning all forms of nuclear weapons testing5 and creating a monitoring system to effectively verify compliance.6 The US has observed a moratorium on nuclear weapons testing since 1992 and is one of nine key states that must ratify the treaty for it to enter into force.
3. Create a new US nuclear posture that reflects post-Cold War realities and commits to a "no first-use" policy for nuclear weapons. A new nuclear posture should instead center on a long-term plan for global disarmament.
4. Stop the development of new nuclear weapons such as the Reliable Replacement Warhead. The creation of new nuclear weapons could spur a new arms race and sends the wrong message to the international community, further undermining the nonproliferation regime.
5. Unilaterally de-alert US nuclear weapons. The high alert status of US nuclear weapons is a relic of the Cold War and creates the risk of accidental or unauthorized launches. In 1995, the US and Russia narrowly avoided nuclear war when Russian radar mistakenly identified a US research rocket as a nuclear launch.7 In 1991, President George H. W. Bush unilaterally took hundreds of nuclear weapons off of high alert. President Gorbachev soon followed his example.8 The new president can change deployment practices to allow nuclear launches in days instead of minutes.
6. Ban the production of fissile material through a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT). Capping the production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium would set a real-world limit on potential nuclear development around the globe. A FMCT would bring countries that have not yet signed the NPT into the international nonproliferation framework.
7. Demonstrate US leadership on global nuclear disarmament by creating a plan to achieve that goal. The concrete, intermediate steps listed above are crucial to making progress toward a safer world. However, outlining the grander vision of a nuclear weapons free world will clarify the end goal that the world can work toward and ensure that all steps taken contribute to reaching it. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently circulated an example of a plan for global disarmament, the Model Nuclear Weapons Convention, to UN member states.9
Footnotes
1. "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons," Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2007
2. "U.S. Nuclear Arms Stance Modified by Policy Study," Washington Post, Walter Pincus, March 23, 2002
3. "The NPT at 35: A Crisis of Compliance of a Crisis of Confidence?," Joshua Williams and Jon Wolfsthal
4. "Nuclear Insecurity," Foreign Affairs, September/October 2007
5. Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, www.ctbto.org
6. "The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Effectively Verifiable," Arms Control Today, October 2008.
7. "Cold-War Doctrines Refuse to Die," Washington Post, March 15, 1998
8. "U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy at the End of the Century: Lost Opportunities and New Dangers," Foreign Policy in Focus, V4 No 25, September 1999.
9. "Model Nuclear Weapons Convention," United Nations Official Document (UN Doc A/62/650), April 2007.
|